The statement below is fallacious. Indicate which fallacy the speaker has committed:

Question

"Which is more likely--that the Yankees lose the first game of the series, or that they lose the first game and come back to win? I expect the Yankees to win the series, so I'll take the second choice."

Fallacy (law) of small numbers

Base Rate Fallacy

Conjunction Fallacy

Regression to the Mean

Answer 1

The conjunction fallacy (also known as the Linda problem or Huang’s theory of conditions is a formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one.