1. Virtual payments are fast displacing cash, but not completely and not everywhere. Fewer Nordic banks are using cash in their branches. India recently scrapped 86 percent of its banknotes. Korea plans to stop minting coins by 2020. Online payments are booming. The march toward a cashless society, it seems, is unstoppable. Young people especially, as well as the better off and better educated, are increasingly at ease paying by card or mobile phone. In the Netherlands, for instance, the number of card transactions surpassed cash (NFPS 2016) for the first time in 2015. But wait. In other advanced economies, including Austria, Germany, Japan, Singapore, and Switzerland, cash is still king. Globally, perhaps 85 percent of all payments are still made in cash.
2. There is no reason cash should survive if more efficient means of payment are developed. Cowrie shells were used as a form of “money” once. Banknotes did not come into use until reliable printing technology became available. “Today, access to the Internet is widespread, and computers, smartphones, and tablets are household items. Thus, everything is in place for launching more electronic payment forms,” Cecilia Skingsley, deputy governor of Sweden’s Riksbank, has said. Sweden is ahead of many developed countries in moving to electronic payment. Cash is now used for only 15 percent of transactions at the point of sale. Even homeless sellers of Stockholm's street magazine accept mobile payments.
3. Successful use of electronic retail payments depends on economies of scale. The more people use a particular technology, the more attractive it becomes—like Facebook. The M-Pesa mobile payment service took off in Kenya because there was one dominant mobile operator, Safaricom, in a country where few people had access to a bank. “M-Pesa is a good case of networks encouraging non-cash use,” Kim Huynh at the Bank of Canada tells F&D. China has also largely bypassed cards and is jumping directly from cash to mobile. The number of mobile payment users leapt 64.5 percent in 2015, and nearly 60 percent of the country’s 710 million Internet users were paying with mobile devices at the end of that year. India, too, is laying the foundations for a digital payment network by encouraging citizens who do not already have bank accounts to open them. The Indian government hopes that this move will mean that more Indian citizens pay tax.