Why did Morris and Clay preemptively dissolve the Red-Headed League?

Question

**Spoilers ahead for The Red-Headed League.**In this Sherlock Holmes story, Holmes and Watson are recruited by a flustered pawnbroker, Jabez Wilson, who has been tricked into joining a fake society, the Red-Headed League. In reality, the society was just a ruse to get Wilson out of his house between the hours of 10 and 2. Whilst he was out, the criminal John Clay, who had taken a job in Wilson's shop, was digging a tunnel to the nearby bank. Wilson was supervised by Clay's accomplice, William Morris, who acted as the League's enforcer and who served to make sure Wilson never left the offices they had hired for him to use.When Clay had finished the tunnel, Morris disbanded the League. Wilson came to the office as usual to see a sign that read:> The Red-Headed League is Dissolved 9 October 1890Holmes is then able to guess the date when the duo plan to carry out their raid on the basis of this announcement.> "And how could you tell that they would make their attempt tonight?" I asked. "Well, when they closed their league offices that was a sign that they cared no longer about Mr Jabez Wilson's presence - in other words, that they had completed their tunnel. But it was essential that they should use it soon, as it might be discovered, or the bullion might be removed. Saturday would suit them better than any other day, as it would give them two days for their escape. For all these reasons I expected them to come tonight."However, wasn't this a daft and reckless move on the part of the criminals? Relieving Wilson of his cushy fake job at the office was sure to arouse his suspicions. Because of Wilson's despair at losing the job he ended up recruiting Holmes, which lead to the foiling of their raid. Wouldn't it have made much more sense simply to leave Wilson to keep his membership of the League until they'd made their escape? He would eventually put two and two together once his assistant disappeared and he stopped getting £4 a week for doing essentially nothing. It seems that they put an awful lot of work into creating this whole charade in the first place. Why didn't they maintain it for just a couple more days?This misstep certainly doesn't fit with Holmes's judgement that Clay was one of the brightest criminals in London.> "Smart fellow, that," observed Holmes as we walked away. "He is, in my judgement, the fourth smartest man in London, and for daring I am not sure that he had not a claim to be the third."**What can explain the behaviour of Clay and Morris here?**

Answer 1

Clay and Morris probably dissolved the Red-Headed League because, from their perspective, it had already served its purpose. The entire scheme existed to keep Wilson away from his shop while Clay dug the tunnel. Once the tunnel was finished, continuing to pay Wilson and maintain the fake office would only create more unnecessary risk.

They also had no real reason to think Wilson would uncover the robbery. He was upset about losing the four pounds a week, but he did not immediately suspect that his assistant was tunneling into a bank. His decision to visit Sherlock Holmes was simply bad luck for Clay and Morris. Most people in Wilson's position probably would have accepted that the strange League had suddenly disappeared and moved on.

Holmes also makes a much bigger deduction from the League's closure than an ordinary person would. To Wilson, the sign means that his easy job is gone. To Holmes, it means that whatever purpose the League served has been completed, which leads him to the tunnel and the planned robbery.

So dissolving the League was definitely a mistake in hindsight, but it was not necessarily an unreasonable one. Clay's real error was underestimating the possibility that Wilson would take the mystery seriously enough to bring it to someone capable of figuring out what the League had actually been hiding.