
Alison M. answered 04/12/20
Horticulture Professional, Certified in Sustainable Agriculture
b. The data support the hypothesis that a higher number of apertures may allow the pollen to germinate faster. Over the span of two hours pollen with 4 apertures achieved an average germination of 22.5%. This is more than four times that of the pollen with 3 apertures, which reached an average germination of 4.67%.
c. According to the data from the experiment above, a higher number of apertures allows individuals to germinate faster than those with a lower number. This would mean that those individuals could out compete others, successfully and quickly germinating and therefore producing more offspring. This directional selection would change the composition of each subsequent generation to include more individuals with an inherited higher aperture number.


Alison M.
1) If you run t-tests on the two sets of data, 3 apertures and 4 apertures after 1 hour, and then again for after 2 hours, you get P values of, respectively 0.0016 and 0.0049. Assuming that we are using conventional criteria for significance with a 95% confidence interval, an alpha of 0.05, then the differences are considered to be very significant. The original question from the student however, did not necessitate running the statistical analysis. 2) According to the original question, the population was not stable over time, in fact there was an observed change in the prevalence of higher aperture number in the fossil record. The researchers thus developed the pollen germination rate v. time experiment to check this hypothesis. The null hypothesis would posit that there was no change related to aperture number.04/13/20

Stanton D.
Agree that t-test data support significance of the difference, but disagree that the averages themselves sufficiently *support* the answer as "Yes". Averages are just numbers, and require the context of sample size to acquire significance. I think there must always be significance to conclusions, to the same degree that there always must be units on numerical measurements (another thing I harp on with students!). I'd of course similarly bridle at answering that the averages *don't* support the hypothesis as "Yes". There's just no useful information unless it's significant! (for students, a good entry to this is accuracy vs. precision issue). -- Cheers, -- Mr. d. P.S. If the research took place in the French Pyranees, I wonder if the researchers' *generic* reaction to the *evolutionary change*, was "Voila", perhaps?04/28/20
Stanton D.
1) Where is the test for significance of difference of the means? 2) Given the apparent advantage to 4 apertures, what keeps the population with the current (apparently stable) proportion in the pollen?04/12/20