probability question

Question

Alex went bowling. He managed to get 3 strikes after 15 attempts. If you were to suggest the probability that he gets a strike on his next attempt, what type of probability would you be using?

A. empirical

B. experimental

C. subjective

Answer 1

It is experimental...

it is binomial probability p=3/15 = 1/5 = 0.2

or at the very least geometric

Answer 2

It depends on the value that you suggest to Alex for the probability of him getting a strike on the next attempt !! [note: problem did not specify]

Empirical probability, also known as experimental probability, refers to a probability that is based on historical data.

So, if you suggest to Alex that the probability of him getting a strike on his next attempt is 3/15 = 1/5 = 20%, then you are using A or B because you have assumed that Alex will continue to perform exactly as he has performed for the last 15 attempts (getting 3 strikes).

Subjective probability is a type of probability derived from an individual's personal judgment or own experience about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions and past experience rather than on data or computation.

So, if you suggest to Alex (let's say it is his first time bowling -- he got 3 strikes out of 15 attempts so far), "You'll be lucky to get another strike all evening; do you even have a handicap?" You have only feelings to base this on (and it hurts others profoundly -- PLZ don't say this to children, students, or employees).

Note: Theoretical Probability is the theory behind probability. For example, if it is equally-likely for a two-sided coin to land on heads or tails (both 50%), we may conduct an experiment to see how close our results come to the theory.

All of statistics is based on the fact that the frequency distribution of occurrence of an outcome (i.e., the probability distribution of outcome events) allows statisticians to specify a "confidence level" (that is, we know that the characteristics of this sample from this population occurs less than 5% of the time (But PLZ don't be surprised when that other 5% occurs !).