Raymond B. answered 10/06/22
Math, microeconomics or criminal justice
P(P/D) = .82= 82% probability of testing positive if the child has the disease
P(P/~D) = .10 = probability of testing positive if the child does not have the disease
P(D)= .053= 5.3% probability of having the disease
P(~D) =1-P(D) =1-.053 = .947= 94.7% probability of not having the disease
P(P) = .529 = 52.9% probability of testing positive
P(~P) = .471 = 47.1% probability of testing negative
Use Bayes' Theorem
P(P/D)P(D) = P(D/P)P(P)
P(D/P) = P(P/D)P(D)/P(P)
P(D/P) = P(P/D)P(D)/[P(P/D)P(D) + P(P/~D)P(~D)]
=.82(.053)/[.82(.053)+(.1)(.947)]
= .4346/.529
=.8213
= 82.13% probability you have the disease if you tested positive