Mary Ann S. answered 07/12/22
Ph.D. Educational Measurement, Doctoral Minor in Statistics.
This is a typical expected value problem, E(X) = sum(f(X)*X) in a different wrapper.
Some assumptions:
- You do not need to deal with the profit the company makes each year that the customer did not die
- The customer can, of course, die only once.
So, the expected cost to the company for each year of the policy is obtained by multiplying the probability of dying by the value of the policy. For instance, the expected cost of the policy in its first year when the customer is 50 is f(x)*X = (.0032)*50,000 = $160.00. I'm assuming the company wants to make at least $500.00, not exactly $500.00. The potential expected cost to the company increases with each passing year that the customer remains alive. So the worst-case scenario is the cost when the customer is 55.
Simply add $500 to that cost, and you have the total price the company should charge the customer.