Assess the social and economic risks of rapid coastal retreat.

Answer 1

This is a huge issue in places like California at the present time. As a retired environmental engineer, I can speak to both the social and economic impacts of sea level rise, which bears on the risks of coastal retreat, rapid or not.

W/re the social, there are entire communities along the coast, such as Del Mar in San Diego County, whose land area would be substantially reduced, or even eliminated, by sea level rise. Numerous recreational facilities such as hotels, convention centers, restaurants, beaches, marinas, etc. are going to be displaced and, without substantial investments and a lot of collateral social upheaval, there will be no place for those uses to relocate. For example, if low-lying areas are inundated and you want to relocate a marina, where will you put it? Will you demolish adjacent bluffs to create space for a marina? What about the individuals who are living there now in multi-million dollar mansions?

In California, people go to the beach often - many go every day - and they expect that the beach will be there for them. So if low-lying areas are inundated by sea level rise, where will we put the new beaches? On top of a bluff with the waves crashing against its base? People will need to find new recreational activities. Beach-related businesses such as surf board sales, rentals, and lessons will disappear. The few remaining beaches will be way overcrowded and rationing of beach access may occur, as has already occurred for decades now with regard to beach camping areas. Hotels and other coastal land-owners who have battled for decades with the public over beach access will up their game as their properties become more valuable and more in demand.

With regard to economics, local jurisdictions will experience a double whammy. On the one hand, they will lose tax revenues from residential and commercial properties that are abandoned or inundated. On the other hand, they will have substantially increased costs. They will be under pressure from their constituents to cover part or all of the cost of relocations, sea walls, sand replenishment, etc. They will probably also get sued by citizens and businesses for either moving too fast or moving too slow on coastal retreat, for down-zoning coastal areas, for addressing or not addressing environmental issues such as endangered species habitat, and for other retreat-related issues. They will need to re-do their General Plans and zoning along with many other plans and codes. They will need to hire experts in coastal engineering and model sea-level rise to provide a sound basis for revising their plans. Overall, the economic outlook for local jurisdictions is not good.

The economic outlook at the state level is also not good. The State of California will probably be under pressure to absorb the costs that local jurisdictions cannot bear. Revenue from state beaches and from other coastal facilities and uses will drop. The State will be financially responsible for some major coastal engineering projects related to sea level rise and coastal retreat. The major ports - San Francisco, Los Angeles, Long Beach, San Diego - will need to finance very expensive improvements to continue their operations, and any decrease in port activity will probably impact state revenue. The State may need to raise state income taxes and other state taxes, increasing the cost of living which is already too high in California, and possibly fueling a major exodus of people from the state.

Answer 2

I can't answer this question directly, but I can point you in the right direction. Coastal retreat is either when the shore itself begins to erode, or when the coast is flooded. Think about New York. Many of the buildings are on the Manhattan Island. If sea levels began to rise rapidly due to climate change, much of the city would become flooded! How would this hurt businesses? Homes?