Yes. You are correct.
verb た-form + そう, hearsay or observation?
`Verb る-form + そう` indicates hearsay.
>帰るそうだ
'I hear he will go home.'
帰らないそうだ [Negative]
`Verb masu stem (i.e. conjunctive form 連用形) + そう` shows information obtained through the senses, observation:
>帰りそうだ
'It looks like he will go home.'
帰らなさそう [Negative]
With this, how do you achieve past tense?
For "hearsay", do you say:
> 帰ったそうだ
' I heard he went home.'
Whilst for "observation", do you say:
> 帰りそうだった
'It looked like he went home.'
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