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Question

A jury has 12 jurors. A vote of at least 10 of 12 for "guilty" is necessary for a defendant to be convicted of a crime. Assume that each juror acts independently of the others and that the probability that any one juror makes the correct decision regarding a defendant is.70. If the defendant is guilty, what is the probability that the jury makes the correct decision?

 

Answer 1

(.7^10)(.3^2) + (.7^11)(.3) + (.7)^12

=.00254 + .00847 + .01977 = .03078 = about 3% chance they'll find him guilty