The chances of the winner being from country a, b, or c

Question

This is probably a very simple question and I think I am thinking to far into it.

There is a competition, there are 4 contestants left. 2 are from country A, 1 is from country B and 1 is from country C. What is the odds that a winner will be from country A? The judge is presented with these 4 people and their country's have nothing to do with the competition I am just curious of the odds.

Answer 1

It is a simple question, but there is a complication to it since people often confuse odds with standard probability.

Odds is the ratio of favorable outcomes to unfavorable outcomes. In this case, there are 2 contestants from country A and 2 contestants from countries that are not A.

The odds ratio would be 2:2. Since a ratio is a fraction, we can simplify the ratio to 1:1.