the Poisson formula will work well here, which is Probability = [(e-μ)(μx)/x] where e is a constant equal to 2.718, μ = expected number, and x = projected number
in this case, μ is equal to 30 x 7% = 30 x 0.07 = 2.1
x = 5
then P = [(2.718-2.1)(2.15)/5] = [(0.122)(40.8)/5] = (4.97/5) ≅ 0.995
because we expect that this situation will NOT occur,
we subtract our result from 1 to get 1 - 0.995 ≅ 0.005