Bayesian Theory

Question

Approximately 1 percent of Americans ages 50-60 have lung cancer. A patient with lung cancer has a 93 percent chance of a positive test. A patient without lung cancer has a 6 percent chance of a positive test (a false positive result).

Answer 1

P(c)= 1% have lung cancer

P(-c)= 99% don't have lung cancer

P(+/c)=93% chance true positive

P(+/-c)= 6% chance false positive

P(a/b)P(b)=P(b/a)(P(a) bayes theorem, a=+, b=c

P(+/c)P(c)=P(c/+)P(+)

.93(.01)= P(c/+)[P(