Chance of success and how many repititions?

Question

Hey, if something has a 11.6% chance of success and i need it to succeed 10,000 times how many extra repetitions would i need to achieve 10,000 results.

Answer 1

on average the mean =np

= number of trials, n, times probability of success each time, p, =

.116n = 10,000

n = 10,000/.116

= about 86,207 needed

extra needed is about 86207-10000 = 76,207

it's the binomial distribution

but, of course, you could get extremely lucky and get 10,000 on the 1st 10,000 tries. People do win the lottery against all odds. LIghtning does strike.

but on average, about 86,207 will get 10,000

it's also possible you never reach 10,000 after a billion, a bazillion or more tries, you could die trying and never succeed