Chima M.
asked • 10/22/22May I get help on this please?
A man claims to have extrasensory perception (ESP). As a test, a fair coin is flipped 20 times, and the man is asked to predict the outcome in advance. He gets 18 out of 20 correct. What is the probability that he would have done at least this well if he had no ESP?
Probability =
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1 Expert Answer
You would want to set up the binomial distribution with n = 20 and p = 0.5 (success probability).
Use the binomial distribution probability calculator to plug in the values.
P(X ≥ 18) = 1 - P(X < 18) = 1 - 0.9998 = 0.0002
The probability that he would have done at least that well if he had no ESP is about 0.0002.
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Tom K.
This is 1 - P(x <= 17|n = 20, p = .5). Use your calculator or Excel's binom.dist(x,n,p,1) to calculate P(x <= 17|n = 20, p = .5). Alternatively, use combinatorics, and the result is (C(20,18)+C(20,19)+C(20,20))/2^20 = 211/104857610/29/22