Kim N.

asked • 04/03/22

Binomial Distribution: Standard Deviation, am I getting this wrong?

I am testing out a Binomial distributed dataset in excel.

The dataset is litterally a "RANDBETWEEN(1;2)" So it simply randomizes between the number 1 and the number 2 on a range of 10.000 cells.

The standard deviation for 10.000 = n and a probability of success of 50% = p

I get a Std Dev of: 50


What I don't understand is why I see the spread of the dataset being way larger than 50. often times it is even more than 200 (as opposed to the Std Dev of 50). Actually by continually refreshing all the 10.000 cells, the spread is surprisingly often above 150, (3x standard deviations). Just about every 1/3 times I refresh the data is goes above 150 spread.

By my understanding, a bigger spread than 3x Standard Deviation should occur very rarely (0,03% of the time) every 333rd time of refreshing the data in excel. Or am I wrong here?

1 Expert Answer

By:

Kim N.

Thanks a lot for the response. Yes, you understood the problem correctly. And yes by 'Spread' I was referring to the difference in amount of 1s versus 2s. Thank you for your clarification. I am very surprised to see that excel seems to big varians between the amount of 1s and 2s, since it should be fairly evenly distributed (50%). One last thing I am a bit unsure about: I am looking at the difference in amount of 1s vs 2s throughout the 10.000 cells. Here is a good example. https://ibb.co/BBLqq1C . (For every "1" the graph adds +1. For every "2" the graph substracts -1) . and the data shows around 200 more 1s than mean value, at the peak point on the graph. but then it ends a bit lower, just around +100 1s, above the mean value. So should I concider the peak point relevant? or should I simply base my conclusion on the ~100 surplus of 1s in the end? I hope it makes sense, I apologize for any confusion due to my english. It's not my first language.
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04/03/22

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