statistics class

Question

1.) Which type of error is the cartoon strip above illustrating (Type I or Type II)? Explain, in both statistical language AND plain language anybody could understand, why it is the type of error you chose. Make sure your explanation uses the information from the cartoon above, so that I can see how the jelly bean research is an example of the error type you chose. Provided is the comic strip.

Answer 1

This is an example of a Type 2 error, or a false positive. The "(p > 0.05) is the confidence interval, meaning that 95% of the time you do the experiment, you will receive the same result. To word it another way, there is a 5% (0.05) chance that the result will be a fluke. Another common confidence interval that is used is (p > 0.01) meaning that 99% of the time that you repeat the experiment, you will get the same or a very similar result.

In the cartoon, the first time that the scientists run the experiment, they find no link between green jellybeans and acne with 95% confidence that their results are accurate. They repeat the same experiment with other colors to also show whether or not jellybean color in general has a link with acne. They find no link over and over for all of the colors, and then the second time that they test the green jelly beans, they find a link. This indicates that this time when they performed the experiment, the result fell within that 5% chance of a false positive.