Probability of hearing about someone for the first time on the exact day they die

Question

On the 31 December 2022, for the first time in my life, I heard about a celebrity, Anita Pointer of the Pointer Sisters.

I woke up the next day, checked the news and saw she had died they day before, i.e. on the 31 December 2022.

What is the probability of that happening?

Answer 1

As mentioned. it's a lot about the assumptions involved. At the minimum, for any particular day, it's probably <the average number of people you hear about for the first time in a day>*<the number of people that die every day>/<current global population>

Of course, this is assuming everything is uniform. You're more likely to hear about people with some amount of fame than, say, a random twelve-year-old from another country. Older people are more likely to die, in general, but how much more also varies based on, say, the general health and healthcare available when and where they live. One of the ways you might 'hear about someone for the first time' is by hearing someone is sick or in the hospital. It goes without saying this greatly increases the probability of hearing about their death in a similar time frame.

There's an essentially uncountable number of possible refinements and assumptions that one could make here.