Current stage in the long-term debt cycle?

Question

I had the opportunity to read Ray Dalio's article on LinkedIn about money, credit, debt and economic activity. He spoke of the different stages of the long-term debt cycle. I found the article very interesting learning of the different stages the economy goes through, however I'm curious as to where we currently are on the cycle now? He lists and discusses the 6 different stages, but could someone please explain in simpler terms where we currently are in the current state of the US during this pandemic? And where will we be heading next?

1) It Begins with No or Low Debt and “Hard Money”

2) Then Come Claims on “Hard Money” (aka, “Notes” or “Paper Money”)

3) Then Comes Increased Debt 

4) Then Come Debt Crises, Defaults, and Devaluations 

5) Then Comes Fiat Money 

6) Then Comes the Flight Back into Hard Money

If you need more detail, here is the link to the article: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-credit-debt-ray-dalio/

Answer 1

I Know Ray and have done business with Bridgewater for decades. I am not convinced of the sequence here as 3,4 and 5 all coexist for very long times. The scramble back to a "hard or commodity" money is usually a result of fiscal and monetary authorities losing all credibility. It is not an inevitabilty any more than smoking ensures lung cancer. Burgeoning Debt with a fiat money and a banking system pushing artificially low rates is the equivalent of going from smaoking a couple of cigarettes per day to a couple of packs. No gjuarantee you will get cancer but that is not how the smart money will bet