Greedy R.

asked • 07/19/19

% Chance / Probability of multiple events occuring 1.5 times or more. Baseball Question!

I have the data, and the answer, but can't figure out the math driving it. Baseball Hitter has a x% chance of meeting or exceeding 1.5 hits,rbis,and runs in a game (think player proposition bets like gamblers bet on). Here is the projected data given for the hitter in the game:

Hits Doubles Triples HomeRuns Runs RBIs
1.09 0.17 0 0.16 0.5 0.64

Additional information that I don't know if is needed or not: Plate Appearances in game = 4.31. At Bats in game = 3.92

Here is the answer to my question: Probability of a player getting at least 1.5 Hits,RBIs,Runs = 0.652683 Probability of a player NOT getting 1.5 Hits,RBIs,Runs =0.34731683

How do I arrive at this answer? I've tried everything as far as solving for probability that I have learned, read about, etc. I cannot arrive at these numbers in the answer. I also do understand that I may be using the term probability incorrectly as that is the % chance that this will or will not occur... Thank you in advance!

Also, I am assuming that you may only need Hits 1.09 and Runs 0.5 and RBIs .64 to solve this? This is because Hits is the sum of all of the other kinds of hits (singles, doubles, triples, home runs).... If you needed to solve for Singles, you would just need to subtract Doubles, Triples, and HomeRuns from Hits = .76 singles

I've spent hours and hours trying to solve this (find the correct equation). I've had no luck even through articles, youtube, etc. Thanks again!

1 Expert Answer


William P. answered • 07/19/19

Bill P., Math and Physics Tutor

Greedy R.

Bill, I think you may be a genius ;) Thank you so much for your answer!!!! I was truly unable to solve this on my own, and your explanation is elegant and extremely detailed. I just recreated the equations that you shared, and I was finally able to solve for the answer. Not only that, but even more importantly I now understand the math behind it, and how to properly apply it. I really can't thank you enough, and truly appreciate the time, thoughtfulness, and expertise you provided! Cheers!


Greedy R.

Still extremely happy about this, so I'm just going to thank you again. You are an excellent teacher!!!


William P.

You're welcome! Glad I could help.


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