
Russ P. answered 10/18/14
Tutor
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Patient MIT Grad For Math and Science Tutoring
Julie,
The easiest ay to think about probability is if you can specify all the possible equally likely outcomes and then pick out those that satisfy your question, then
Desired probability = [Sum of picked outcomes] / [Total of possible outcomes].
In your problem, there are 7 letters (ABCDEFG) that can be arranged in random order. No letter can appear more than once in the 7-letter sequence. Thus, there are 7 possibilities for a letter in position1, 6 remain for position2, then 5 remain for position3, etc. Then the total number of the se 7-letter sequences possible is 7 factorial (7!) which is just 7*6*5*4*3*2*1 = 5,040. That's your denominator Each of these sequences is equally likely because of the specified randomness. Now to handle your 2 questions:
(a) What's the probability that A & E are next to each other?
Let's sketch out the possibilities:
1. Suppose A is in position1, then E must be in position2 and we don't care how the remaining 5 letters are arranged (that's 5! or 120 possibilities of the 5040).
2. Now suppose A appears in position 2, then E has to be in either position1 or position3, and again we don't care about the other 5 letters, so that's 2 sequences of 120 possibilities each, or 240 A in position2.
3. Repeating this argument for A in positions3 thru 6 and E on either side of A. That's 4 cases of 240 each (as in #2) or 960 possibilities that satisfy our question.
4. Finally, when A is in position7, E can only be in position6, so that gives us 120 cases as in #1.
Therefore, the Probability for question (a) is = [120 + 240 + 960 + 120] / 5040 = 1440 / 5040 = 0.286
(b) What's the probability that A B & C are next to each other in some order?
Note that you didn't mean to use the word appear since they are guaranteed to be in every sequence (probability = 1) by definition of how the sequences are constructed. So the important point is they have to be next to each other.
Therefore, we can use a similar logical approach as in part (a);
1. If A is in position1, then ABC or ACB satisfy our question, and we don't care about the order of the other 4 letters (4! or 24 possibilities). So we have two cases of 24 each for a total of 48 here.
2. If A is in position2, then BAC, CAB, ABC & ACB satisfy our question as in giving us 96 more sequences.
3. If A is in position3, then BCA, CBA, BAC, CAB, ABC & ACB give us 6 * 24 or 144 sequences.
4. Continuing this logic by placing A in position4 thru 7 will produce (6 + 6 + 4 + 2)*24 = 432 more sequences. Notice the symmetry position 1 & 2 and then 6 & 7 because it gets near the extremes which cuts down possibilities.
Thus, the Probability of condition (b) = [48 + 96 + 144 + 432] / 5040 = 720 / 5040 = 0.143
So by specifying a 3 letter condition versus a two-letter condition, we've reduced the number of 7-letter sequences drawn randomly that will satisfy the condition, so the probability must decrease.
That's a lot of work to keep the details straight, but the approach is straightforward in principle. Good luck!
Partha Sakha C.
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