What a fun question! I think we should run a bunch of experiments to figure it out!
For this first-pass analysis, let's assume:
- the water level is hr below your center of mass
- your mass and geometry can be modeled as a particle
Key facts to recognize:
- After you release your grip, your center of gravity's flight path is a parabola.
- The problem has 2 distinct parts or phases:
- while gripping the rope
- after release
- The initial conditions for part b come from the analysis of part a. That is, your lateral distance at impact depends on your launch speed and direction and lateral position at the time you release.
- And your launch speed and direction (angle) and lateral position depend on the angle of the rope at the time you release.
For part a, consider using conservation of energy to derive expressions for launch speed, direction, and position.
Part b is a ballistics problem; derive an expression for the lateral distance.
Finally, substitute and solve.