Hello, Sara,
The rate at which the oil reserves is declining is a constant 22 Billions of Barrels per year (BB/Y), so let's assume this is a linear equation. There is a constant rate of decline so the line depicting the amount remaining should be straight. The best place to start is y = mx + b.
Let's say Y is the amount of oil remaining in Billion Barrels of Oil (BB), X is the time in years, and b is the amount we start with. m in this equation is the slope, or rate of decline in the oil. This is -22 BB/Y. We are starting with 2190 Billion Barrels (BB), so this will be the b, or slope intercept (where T = 0, starting now when we have 2190 BB remaining). Put this together and we arrive at this equation:
Y (BB) = -22 BBY*X + 2190 BB
[The oil remaining is equal to years times the usage plus the oil present at the start at T = 0]
Try it out for values you know or can predict:
This works for X = 0, since Y = 2190BB, the start.
After 1 year, we'd expect to have drawn down 22BB: Y = (-22 BB/Y)*1year + 2190BB; Y = 2168BB, which is correct
Try other years to check this equation.
Then let's use 7 years:
Y = -22*7 + 2190
Y = 2036BB remaining.
Now let's assign a value of "0" to Y and solve for X to find out how many years until the reserves are depleted (Y = 0).
0 = -22X + 2190
-2190 = -22X
X = -2190/-22
X = 95.545 years
Since we only have 2 sig figs, this technically should be rounded to 96 years.
I hope this helps,
Bob