If participation among Latinos increases, how do you think that will affect the landscape of Texas politics? Which party would be favored? Why?

Answer 1

Texas has long been a reliable "red" state — it has voted for every Republican presidential candidate since 1980. Even when Democrats won the state in elections just prior to that — aside from 1964 (Johnson blowout like the rest of the country) — the state was closely contested:

1. 1960: Kennedy wins by about 2 points. He was concerned about how Democratic Party infighting would cause him to lose there in '64 (hence the fateful trip to Dallas in 1963 that resulted in his assassination).
2. 1968: Humphrey wins by 1.5 points.
3. 1976: Carter wins by about 3 points.

As Texas continues to grow and more Democratic voters move to the large metro areas in the state (Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin, Houston), statewide contests are growing more and more competitive. A Democrat hasn't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Recently:

1. Donald Trump won Texas in 2016 by about 9 points. Mitt Romney won the state by nearly 16 points in 2012. John McCain won by 12 (in an Obama landslide election). George W. Bush won by 20+ points in 2000 and 2004 (granted he was the state's governor).
2. Ted Cruz barely squeaked out his re-election bid in 2018 against Beto O'Rourke, winning by about 2.5 points.
3. Polling in the 2020 cycle suggests that both statewide races — presidential and Senate — could be close. The RealClearPolitics Average has Trump leading Biden by an average of just 3.6 points (as of 9/28) and Sen. John Cornyn leading M.J. Hegar by an average of 7.5 points. That is a significant drop in support for Cornyn, who was re-elected by almost 30 points in 2014 and gained vote share.

Latinos make up a huge voting block in Texas (28% of all voters says Pew Research) — and could be the largest voting block in the state in the next year. How they vote will have a huge impact on any election in the state going forward.

Nationally in the 2018 midterms, Pew found that Latino voters voted Democratic by about a 70-30 margin. So that math definitely favors the Democrats. The question is, is it enough to flip the state in 2020? Maybe. Complicating things is the fact that Trump runs up huge margins in rural counties nationally, including Texas (up to 80% of the vote in some places). In 2016, that was enough to offset D gains in the cities, hold several swing states, and flip the Rust Belt states that won him the election.

I think you will see Texas vote blue in Senate and presidential contests in the next couple of cycles, but probably not 2020. Virginia was really the first reliably red Southern state to flip blue — it's a pretty solid "lean blue" state now. North Carolina is probably next in line, followed by Georgia, and then Texas.

I think the presidential race will be close and an interesting state to watch. I'm not expecting Cornyn to lose — he's a high-ranking member of the GOP Senate leadership and Hegar isn't as well-funded as O'Rourke.