Hello Michael,
Donald J. Trump was officially and formally impeached on December 18, 2019. Therefore, you have officially won the bet if that was the stipulation of the original bet. That said, the bet you made with your friend was likely built on the notion or idea that Donald Trump would no longer be POTUS by the end of his first term due to impeachment. I will explain why most are rather confused about this ordeal.
In the United States, the House of Representatives hold the sole power to impeach the President of the United States. Impeachment, however, does not mean the automatic removal from office. In order for the President to be removed from office, he or she must be convicted by the United States Senate. This is covered in the constitution under Article I, section 2, Clause 5, and Article I, section 3, clause 6 & 7.
To address the original question: If the original intent of the bet made was that President Trump would be removed from office before his first term was over, you would have to wait for the conclusion of the United States Senate trial. It is safe to say that you would lose the bet on those grounds. The statistical odds of conviction and removal from office are very low. Presently, the United States Senate is controlled by the Republicans. Thus, they are not likely to convict a Republican president. Democrats also do not have the sufficient supermajority of votes needed. If the original bet was made with "impeachment" being the only stipulation by the end of Donald Trump's first term, you have won the bet.
If you would like to have further discussions on this topic or others, please feel free to contact me to schedule a session!
Best,
Chris
