Is there a way to forecast Forex mathematically?

Answer 1

To begin with, the currency markets are very efficient. I do know certain things. For example if Inflation in Turkey is around 100% and it is around 2% in the US the Dollar should appreciate buy about 98% per year vs. the Turkish Lira. If there is a coup in Turkey I would expect The lira to depreciate as well. I may know How The British pound would respond to a Brexit vote. But I don't know the outcome of the election a priori. Foreign exchange rates follow a random walk with non-constant volatility