Jerry S.

asked • 09/29/18# Statistical poll question

## 1 Expert Answer

Peter N. answered • 03/21/20

Research scientist in quantitative biology

If your alt hypothesis is that the true probability of success is not equal to 0.5, and assuming that the 76 who chose the man on the right were, in fact, correct, you could do a 2-sided binomial test. The results are a p-value of <0.001 and the 95% CI is 0.66 - 0.84. In other words, people appeared to have been generally able to identify the older man; you're highly unlikely to get these results if people were completely unable to make the distinction.

Note that the poll appears to be flawed, however, as you didn't (?) randomize the position of the two men. Let me know if you need more details or you want to know how to run a binomial test in R.

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Mark M.

09/29/18