Statistics question

Question

a candidate must win 263 of the total of 523 votes in an electoral college. Let's suppose that the largest region gets 52 votes. Assuming that a candidate wins this region, the number of additional electoral college votes can be approximized by a normal distribution with u=235.8 and SD=54.1 votes. Given that the candidate wins the largest region, what are the chances that they become the next president?

Answer 1

 

 263-52 = 211

 

P(X>=211) = 1 - P(x<211) = 1 - P(z< (211-235.8)/54.1) = 1 - P(z< -0.4584) = 1 - 0.3233 = 0.6767

 

67 and 2/3 % chance of willing the election

 

That's 2 to 1 odds in favor of winning