if i am winning 60% of the time on a 50/50 bet what are the odds of me losing 6 in a row?

Question

Hi Guys, 

 

I would love for someone to help me out on this problem, I am a trader just getting into Binary options. i bet either up or down on a financial trade market. 

I have tested my strategy and i win 60% of the time. I have won 60 trades and lost 40 over 100 trades. I am now thinking about a money management plan and i was wondering what are the chances of me losing 6 in a row. Essentially there is a 50/50 chance the market can go up or down however i do use an indicator to give me a slight edge over the market.  

 

Your help would be greatly appreciated. 

 

Thank you. 

 

Kind Regards,

 

Geoff

Answer 1

Assuming a fair coin, there is a 50% chance of winning or losing on each flip. The chances of losing two times in a row is 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25. The chances of losing 11 times in a row, in the first 11 tosses, is 0.5^11= 0.00048828125. Or about 2000 to 1 ( 1/0.00048828125 = 2048) as the article points out.Nov 21, 2011
Statistics: How Unusual is the New Orleans 0-11 Coin Toss Loss? | Dr ...
www.indium.com/blog/statistics-how-unusual-is-the-new-orleans-0-11-coin-toss-loss.php