Math statistics case study :(

Question

Probability Distribution of the Number of Families per Parish of German Immigrants on Board the 1752 Voyage of the St.

Andrew

 

 

# of families                                         p(x)
1-------------------------------------... 0.706
2-------------------------------------... 0.176
3-------------------------------------... 0.000
4-------------------------------------... 0.059
5-------------------------------------... 0.000
6-------------------------------------... 0.059

 

6 families, of these six

5. Langenscheidt came across a fragment of another ship?s passenger list. This fragment listed information for six families. Of these six, five families purchased more than four freights. Using the information contained in the appropriate probability distribution for the St. Andrew, calculate the probability that at least five of six German immigrant families purchased more than four freights. Does it seem likely that these families came from a population similar to that of the Germans
on board the St. Andrew? Explain.

 

I am so confused? is it 1-5/6 ^4 

 

Answer 1

This question is poorly worded and confusing.  Here is what I think.  The probability table gives you the probabilities for the number of German families from a Parish aboard this ship.  for example the probability of only 1 family aboard is .706  In order for at least 5 German families to purchase 4 or more freight there have to be 5 or 6 German familes aboard.

 

so Pr(5or more German families aboard) =

Pr(5 German families aboard) + Pr(6 German families aboard)

 

=   0  +  .059  =  .059  or approximately 6%

 

Given such a low probability of occurrence, it seems likely the families came from a population where the probability for a larger number of families is much greater than is the case for the German population given in the table.