The problem with these questions is that the answers will be entirely speculative.
But without Soviet support via sugar purchases, Cuba risked a U.S.-backed coup like the 1973 Chilean coup that brought Pinochet to power. A U.S.-installed leader, likely military or anti-communist, could have suppressed Castro’s supporters as Pinochet did with leftists, leading to mass arrests and a campaign of political repression similar to Chile’s Operation Condor, targeting dissidents with U.S. backing.
And without Cuban support, Latin American revolutionary movements, like those in Nicaragua and El Salvador, may have struggled. Economically, Cuba could have shifted to neoliberal policies like privatization and currency stabilization, attracting foreign investment but risking wealth inequality and economic instability, as was evident in Chile’s 1982 crisis.
So a U.S.-backed Cuban dictator might have used a military junta to secure power, censor opposition, and control plebiscites. Over time, international pressure and dissent might have led to a return to democracy after years of authoritarianism, human rights violations, and economic turmoil.
