Kimberly was voted MVP for 2 out of the past 5 games? What is the probability that Kimberly will be MVP this year?

Question

Please explain how to get the answer. I've missed this question 3 times on a random quiz.

Answer 1

Hello T.M.,

 

There is not enough data to answer this question with any certainty. You can SWAG* it to assume her chances of being season MVP are equal to her chances of being named game MVP...40% is 2 out of 5.

 

But that's based on the simplest argument. Who knows if she's played all the teams in her league after only 5 games? (If there are much better teams out there that she hasn't played against, they'll have better players and her chances for game MVP would go down in those games.)

 

Your safest answer is "There are insufficient data to answer with any confidence." If you're forced to give a number, say it's about 40% but at a very low confidence level.

 

Eric M.

McMinnville OR

 

*SWAG = scientific wild-a** guess