Dary P.

asked • 07/30/20

probability question

If there's a larger set with a random distribution of A, B, C and D, and I view a small portion of the set and see an uneven amount of each variable (for example only one A, and more B, C and D) are the odds greater than 25% that a randomly selected member of the remaining set is A?

Dary P.

Another way of asking this: is selecting another member of the set really random or do we know something about about the probability of the remaining set by viewing the initial set? (assuming the entire set was selected randomly in the beginning with each variable having an equal probability)
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07/30/20

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Stanton D. answered • 08/01/20

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Hi Dary P.,

The odds are still 25% A for another set member. Each of those set members was randomly chosen, therefore knowing some portion of the set doesn't affect what the rest of the set is doing. Now, if you didn't know that there were 4 choices, and that they had been randomly selected, and you were trying to figure out "on the fly" what might be the distribution, that would be a different problem entirely (and, let's face it, more realistic with respect to real-world investigations!).

-- Cheers, -- Mr. d.

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