Seems like a factorial or something like that.

Question

Virginia’s population is about 8,400,000. Its nursing home population is about 27,500 people. Over 50% of covid 19 deaths occur in nursing homes. There have been 839 total deaths. What are the odds of dying of the virus if I am not in a nursing home? I don’t think it is a simple 420/8.4m. Seems like a factorial or something like that.

Answer 1

Mark, what you calculated (or approximated) is the probability.

The odds is the ratio of p/q, with q=1-p

You are close!! Given the large numbers, your approximation for p is acceptable:

p < 420 / (8,400,000 - 27,500)