A coin is flipped 40 times, it lands on heads 16 times. How many heads would you predict for 200 flips?

Question

A coin is flipped 40 times, it lands on heads 16 times. How many heads would you predict for 200 flips?

Answer 1

The probability of the coin landing on heads is 0.5. After 200 flips, you would expect the coin to land on heads 100 times. It does not matter if the coin landed on heads 16 out of 40 flips in a previous experiment.

Answer 2

When studying probability, you encounter the terms "experimental probability" and "theoretical probability."  The coin that was flipped 40 times and landed on heads 16 times was part of an experiment.

 

The theoretical probability of a "fair" coin landing on heads is 50% on each time it is flipped, regardless of previous events.  PLZ note that "loaded dice" are not "fair."

 

So, a fair coin flipped 200 times is most likely to land on heads 100 times.  Landing on heads 99 or 101 times is slightly less likely; 98 or 102 is still less likely; ...; 0 or 200 times is really far out, but it could happen.  The best bet (most likely) is 100 times.