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Halfway through the basketball season, a basketball player has hit 78% of her free-throws. What is the probabilty that she will miss her next free-throw?

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4 Answers

This is a trick question.
 
If you aren't told what the expected probability of her free-throws is, there's no way to tell.
 
For example, if you flip a fair coin 3 times and it comes up heads all three times, that has no effect on the next flip. It's not "more likely" to be Tails, which is why the Basketball player in the problem's NEXT free throw doesn't depend on her other free throws earlier in the season.
 
I suspect it's a poorly-written problem, in which case Pran's answer of 0.22 is correct. :-)