I have always managed to keep probability as simple as possible for my own work in statistical physics. I focus on the pathways rather than the rules and have scores of hours of experience tutoring probability so that it doesn't lose touch with its foundation: basic counting and fractions. Discrete binomial, multinomial and Poisson distributions; continuous normal, exponential, T, F or Chi-squared distributions; conditional, marginal, and joint distributions; Bayes theorem and inference.